The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, and EUR/CAD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Another trend low printed. The pair continues to dig deeper into the broad 1.1640/1.1876/1.2042 broad support zone with yet another trend low printed yesterday. There are however still, except the support area itself, several factors that could help slow down the descent. The Ger/US 2y spread has since late Dec been moving in the opposite direction, the spread between spot and the 233d ma is at its widest since 2010 and the hourly chart has begun bullishly diverging. So in the best of worlds an upside reaction should begin no later than from the wave 1 & wave 3 bottom line at 1.1740.
AUD/USD: Consider decreasing a short position. With five waves down from the wave 4 peak, a developing falling wedge (terminating pattern) and a possible bullish divergence are all factors that speaks in favor of considering taking profit on shorts. A break above the November top line will probably trigger buying and a quick move to 0.8216. Also our fulfilled AUD/NZD target (see yday TA) helps forming a base for the AUD.
EUR/JPY: Cushioned by the 233d ma band. The impulsive part of the current declining phase should now be ending given that we 1) has fallen down to the 233d ma band and 2) that we have a couple of wave three targets (161.8%) in the 141.56 – 139.44 area. Accordingly the risk/potential for a corrective bounce should be on the rise over the coming days. Kind of an ideal pattern calls for a swift, short-lived break below 140.58 (bear trap) and then a return higher.
EUR/CAD: Upholding downside pressure. Yesterday’s low and bearish looking session close upholds short-term pressure on supports at 1.3945 and more importantly 1.3880/70. Dynamic resistance should be fairly strong at/above the 1.41-level. Also back over 1.4200 on a bullish note is needed to come out of this one on a more positive manner. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.3930 & 1.4070.
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