The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/NZD and Crude Oil as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Another low, another divergence. The decline below 1.2340 effectively slammed the door to the topside confirming that yet another (but still marginally) low was underway. A small congestion range since the 1.2271 low argues that another low will be set today, preferably in the 1.2258-1.2229 target window. On a grander scale we are still (due to a fulfilled wave pattern, the wedge and the bullish divergence) calling for a more profound reaction to be lurking around the corner.
USD/CAD: Heading for the wave 3 target. After more than a month of consolidation the pair now seems ready to exit the congestion range and embark on the final journey up to the wave 3 target, 1.1645. The failed attempt to break higher on Friday will soon be followed by another and likely more successful one.
AUD/NZD: Great problems above 1.0825. Five out the past six days the market has been trying to get a foothold above 1.0825, however without any success. There seems to be numerous offers in the 1.0825 – 60 area hindering any attempt higher. The longer we maintain in this tight range sitting at the lower boundary of the 2014 large bear flag, the greater the probability will be for a downside exit and continuation down to our longer term target, 1.0380. There should on the other hand be some buy stops above 1.0860.
Brent Crude: It still looks like a correction lower. The move off last week’s high still looks like a correction in relation to the pace rally leading into it, but it has admittedly dragged on a lot longer than initially thought. A sustained move through nearby local resistance at 69.82 should be enough to move focus back to a more important level of resistance just north of the 73-mark. Current intraday stretches are located at 67.75 & 70.50.
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