The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/NZD, and EUR/GBP as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Next attempt to end the bear flag. Even though the first attempt lower didn’t play out the fact that we remained below 1.1534, the Feb 03 top, kept a bearish (a-b-c) wave count in place. To confirm a bearish exit there’s however still a need for a 1.1262 break (as long as not broken there remains an alternate but less likely short term bullish wave count (which will be activated above 1.1499). Friday’s mid body point, 1.1396 will now be an important reference point (where offers should be centered).
USD/JPY: Should soon turn lower in wave e. If the pair continues to follow the textbook then we should see wave d ending between 119.23 and 119.76 and thereafter falling back in wave e (targeting a maximum 116.66 move but probably less than so given that e-waves has a tendency of being weaker than the preceding wave ad).
AUD/NZD: Rechecked and validated break. The bounce from the long term target, 1.0380, was strongly rejected from the former bear flag floor, now acting as strong resistance. The rejection and the following impulsive move lower does question our view of a long term target having been put in place at 1.0358. A move below 1.0528 will trigger a new round of selling and possible a recheck of the former low point.
EUR/GBP: Price action looks bearish still. The lowest session close on file since early 2008 counts for something and the 2010-2012 descending line of support in the high -0.73 is under pressure. Loss of support there would lower short-term focus to the next set of Fibos in the high-0.72s. A move over at least 0.7505\10 is needed to stave off the immediate downside risk. Current intraday stretches are located at 0.7385 & 0.7485.
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