The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and GBP/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: At least a minor reaction. After selling was halted at the support line the market has begun at least a minor correction higher. With 1.1845 taken out it is highly likely that the reaction will stretch out further north with 1.1886 and 1.1960/78 being potential short term targets. A drop beneath 1.1762 will confirm that the underlying bear trend already has resumed.
USD/JPY: Soon at the key junction. After multiple rejections from the 78.6% resistance, 120.51, the pair is now making downside progress. To maintain the possibility of creating a wave four triangle the pair should not fall much more than a few points below the 78.6% Fibo support, 116.68. The risk of doing so has however increased given the exit from the October bull channel. So if sustaining a break below 116.68 will open up for 114.54 or even lower levels.
AUD/USD: More short covering underway. With the successful exit from the Nov falling channel (and the past month’s wedge) and the now confirmed bull divergence the warned of correction is getting considerable momentum. A continued surge up to the 55d ma band should now be penciled in (even though a short term setback might occur along the way). On a grander scale there’s actually room for the pair to recheck the 0.8660 break.
GBP/USD: Venting a short-term stretch. The move lower lost some steam going into mid/late week and buyers managed to grab the initiative Fri. This points higher near-term in a bid to reduce the short-term severe stretch. Last week’s mid-body point and a previously broken long-term trendline in the mid-1.52s could be targeted for this correction higher. More resistance currently kicks in at 1.5310. The above is likely wrong if 1.5077 breaks. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.5085 & 1.5235.
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