The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and AUD/NZD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Still range-bound. Nothing that could help resolving the current stalemate took place Friday so we’re still stuck in the past weeks stalemate. As earlier we are favoring a downside solution (confirmed below 1.1262) as long as the pair doesn’t trade above 1.1499.
USD/JPY: Finalizing the triangle? So far the low end of the 55d ma band has prevented the pair from falling deeper (even though a bull triangle case can survive a move as low as 115.85, the c-wave low and stop to a potential triangle case). Ending today above 119.20 will however add a lot of credibility to a possible completed downside reaction.
USD/CAD: Bull triangle or bull flag? The current consolidation can follow two possible paths; either the market turns higher from current levels (indicating that we are constructing a bull triangle) OR 1.2353 will give way for a dip down to 1.2253 (calling for a classic a-b-c, three wave correction bull flag). Both alternatives are however, once completed, pointing at a continued rise up to our longer term targets in the 1.31/34-area.
AUD/NZD: Contesting record lows. Steady as she goes – and this is south. Without much razzamatazz the cross keeps coming lower by the day and as long as last week’s mid-body point at 1.0490 and other refs in its vicinity stay untouched, a serious test at the all-time low of 1.0358 should be expected. The current short-term downside stretch (21day exponential moving average -2%) may for now hinder a drop much below 1.0325, but within days this dynamic ref will be significantly lower.