The following are the latest technical setups for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Credit Suisse.
EUR/USD: The collapse below the 1.1641 2005 low maintains the large top for 1.1212 next, ahead of our 1.0836/0765 core target.
EURUSD collapsed aggressively removing the 2005 low at 1.1641. This reinforces our bearish stance following the completion of a multi-year top and turns attention next to 1.1446 next, then 1.1381, the November 2003 low, ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the 2000/08 rise at 1.1212 next. We allow for a bounce here, but our core target remains lower at 1.0836/0765.
Near-term resistance shows at 1.1684, then 1.1728/43. Above here can ease the immediate bias for a recovery back to 1.1794, potentially 1.1841.
CS runs a limit order to sell EUR/USD at 1.17 targeting 1.1215.
GBP/USD: We look for 1.5318/22 to cap to keep the medium-term trend still lower.
GBPUSD’s recovery has found selling interest well ahead of price resistance at 1.5318/22, but while the 1.5078/77 price support holds, the focus can stay higher. Near-term resistance shows at 1.5268/70, and only above 1.5322 would allow a more sustained recovery to 1.5365 then trendline and price resistance at 1.5487/5501, which would be expected to cap to keep the medium-term trend still lower
Below 1.5078/77 is needed to retarget 1.5035/24. A break here is needed to look to the 61.8% retracement of the 2009/2014 rally at 1.4913 next. With the 2013 major lows just below at 1.4832/13, we would expect a basing effort here.
CS runs a short GBP/USD position with a stop at 1.5276, and a target at 1.4915.
AUD/USD: The immediate risk turns marginally higher for a retest of .8296/99.
AUDUSD has pushed higher again, taking out the recent high at .8256. This turns attention towards resistance at .8296/99 at first, ahead of .8322/25. Above can then see more important support from price, 55-day average and 38.2% retracement of the October 2014/January 2015 decline at .8363/76. We would look for a cap here to ideally turn the trend lower again. A direct break higher can warn of a deeper recovery for .8468/73.
Support shows at .8184 initially, followed by .8133. Below .8068/66 though remains needed to see scope for key support at .8033/28 – the cycle lows and medium-term uptrend support.
CS runs a short AUD/USD position from .8250 targeting .8050.
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